ITMedia Consulting expects substantial growth for the VOD sector in Europe over the next few years, as shown in its latest report: "Video on Demand in Europe: 2017-2020. Big Numbers, Big Data" coming out on June 8th. The company estimates that total sector revenues in Western Europe will reach €4.2 billion by the end of 2017 and will grow at an average annual rate of 16%, reaching € 6.7 billion in 2020.

TVOD, which will grow at an average rate of 5%, is expected to cut its market share from 37% in 2017 to 27% in 2020. In 2015, it represented about half of total revenues. It follows that the SVOD will present the highest market shares, rising at rates far greater than the TVOD.

France, Germany and UK, although with many differences, represent the most important countries in the Western Europe VOD market. ITMedia Consulting estimates that the total revenues deriving from the VOD offer in the joint Big 3 markets, will be of €2,7 million in 2017, increasing to €4,1 million in 2020, with an average annual growth of 15%.
The Big 3. with a population share of about 40% of the total, reach about 63% of the total VOD in Europe, in 2017, a quota that is slowly decreasing by 2020, when it will reach 62%.

A pivotal role in this evolution will be played by Big Data. Predictive analytics, which uses techniques in data mining, statistical modeling and OTT video and Big Data Analysis as well as machine learning, is taking analytics to its next logical level. Predictive analysis with help of supervised machine learning algorithms is bringing powerful tools in predicting future trends.

These predictions affect the top-level decisions of the online video business. Through analytics, companies like Netflix and Amazon can know how much content a user has to watch to minimize the churn, what content each user prefers to enjoy, and what he expects and wants in the future: a recommendation algorithm that helps users in discovering new movies and TV series, pushing and directing the fruiting of new video content is a keys part of the customer retention strategy as well as content production and acquisition strategies. And that is, in the end, what leads to success. 

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